India-Pakistan Relations: Are We on the Brink of War?

India-Pakistan Relations 

Are We on the Brink of War?

Relations between India and Pakistan have always carried an element of tension and conflict with each other, besides being cyclical in their efforts at talks. Of late, there have been numerous reasons that affect this relationship like territorial disputes, terrorism, political changes, and regional developments. With the current state, it is a tricky situation, and questions arise whether there is a possibility of war from these nuclear-armed neighbour.

Historical Perspective

True understanding of India-Pakistan relations today must involve looking at historical context. They have fought multiple wars, mainly over the region of Kashmir, since British India divided into two separate nations in 1947. The Line of Control, dividing Indian-administered and Pakistani-administered Kashmir, is currently a hotbed of military clashes and civilian casualties.

Cross-border tensions have lately risen over the matters of establishing militant groups, India's move to abrogate Article 370 in 2019, and the fallout that followed with the abrogation of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. These developments have gradually made it hardened in positions on both sides, making dialogue prospects complicated.

Current Affairs

1.Tensions in the Army: 

The LoC, thereby, continues to be an arena where regular crossing of fire between the two sides occurs and there are heightened military postures on both sides of the border. India has, at various times, accused Pakistan of its cross-border terrorism and particularly after such high-profile attacks as the 2016 Uri attack and the 2019 Pulwama attack. India responded with surgical strikes and airstrikes into Pakistani territory heightening the drama of the tensions to the extreme.

2.Political Oratory:

In both countries, politicians and leaders tend to be extremely nationalistic, and this flares up tensions. The ruling BJP has been highly vocal against Pakistan, branding it a terrorist state. Pakistani leaders often call for the liberation of Kashmir and infuse that public sentiment against India.

3.Diplomatic Initiatives: 

At present, there have been only scattered attempts at diplomacy: backchannel diplomacy and peace negotiations; but these have failed partly due to mistrust and almost completely through a lack of political will. Recent Indian diplomatic moves have also been degraded, from a Pakistani view of things, since the arrival in power of the BJP has exacerbated tensions between the armies.

External Factors

The influence of external powers has also changed the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. Indian and Pakistan relations impact and are impacted by the United States, China, and Russia. It raises suspicion in India that China has been open and quite chummy with Pakistan, especially through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). On the other hand, the U.S. has attempted to make amends with both, but lately has tilted toward India on the economy and defence.

Are We on the Brink of War?

While it does indeed seem ominous, the likelihood of war between India and Pakistan is still dubious. 

A few reasons support this thinking:

1. Nuclear Deterrent:

Both are nuclear powers, and this is a very strong deterrent for all-out war. The possibility of mutually assured destruction has always restricted either side from escalating matters to the extent of war.

2.Economic Factors: 

The two countries are strongly experiencing serious economic challenges that have lessened the appeal of war. For India, whose economy is growing rapidly, there will always be a thrust for development while for Pakistan, there are internal challenges and an utterly struggling economy that war would just stir up.

3.International Pressure: 

War would invite international pressure. Major global players such as the U.S. and China would push for nothing but the avoidance of war. The humanitarian catastrophe of war in South Asia would not go globally unnoticed either.

4.Public Mood: 

Nationalist tendencies seem to prevail in both countries, but there is also growing humanitarian consciousness and war casualties. Indian citizens and Pakistanis want peace as well as normalcy, despite what the politicians scream against each other.

Conclusion:

Although the relations between India and Pakistan remain volatile, the possibilities of a conflict are still packaged through different deterrence mechanisms. Military exchanges persist as does the political verbiage and extraneous interferings. However, the nuclear arms of both countries, economic factors, and the need for stability introduce a complex scenario that is likely to prevent a full-scale war on both sides.

Both the countries need dialogue, however, a tough task, because trust needs to be inculcated. Cultural exchange initiatives, economic collaboration, and people-to-people contact can prove to be the building blocks for the future toward a peaceful South Asia. 

The process of peace in South Asia is going to be long and tough, but that cannot prove to be too high a stakes game for both countries when they keep brooding over the alternative of cooperation to conflict.